The current environment argues for balance rather than major portfolio changes. South African growth remains weak, inflation pressures have risen and interest rates are likely to remain relatively high. This makes cash and income assets attractive, while equities should remain an important source of long-term growth. Offshore exposure continues to provide both investment diversification and protection against rand weakness.
For a long-term investor, the appropriate response is therefore not to react to each week's economic news, but to ensure that the portfolio remains properly diversified between local and offshore equities, bonds, cash and other suitable assets according to the investor's objectives, income requirements and risk tolerance.
For an individual South African investor, the message from this week’s data is not that one should make dramatic portfolio changes, but rather that the environment continues to favour diversification, some offshore exposure, inflation protection and a reasonable allocation to income-producing assets.
The rand has given back some of its recent gains. For a South African investor, a weaker rand generally increases the rand value of offshore investments, although it also raises the cost of imports and can add to domestic inflation. This reinforces the value of maintaining appropriate offshore exposure rather than trying to time the currency.
The latest GDP picture remains subdued, with GDP having contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026. Stats SA This is not particularly supportive of companies that depend heavily on strong domestic consumer spending or rapid local economic expansion. Investors may therefore want to favour quality businesses with strong balance sheets, pricing power and diversified earnings rather than simply buying “South Africa” broadly.
Producer inflation rose sharply to 6.2% in September, from 5.0% in August, while consumer inflation was 4.5%. Stats SA Producer inflation does not automatically translate directly into consumer inflation, but it indicates that businesses are facing higher input costs. If those costs are passed on, inflation and interest rates could stay higher for longer.
For investors, that is generally supportive of cash, money-market funds, income funds and certain bonds, because interest yields remain attractive, but it can be less comfortable for highly indebted companies and expensive growth shares.
The SARB increased the repo rate to 7.25% in September, citing renewed inflation pressures and projecting inflation to remain elevated into 2027. South African Reserve Bank Internationally, the picture is similar. The US Federal Reserve left rates at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October, saying growth remains strong but inflation elevated. Federal Reserve Canada actually raised rates by 0.25% last week. Bank of Canada
The implication is important: the global interest-rate environment is not moving quickly back to ultra-low rates. Investors can therefore still earn meaningful returns from lower-risk interest-bearing investments.
Higher inflation is negative for bonds because it can push yields higher and bond prices lower. However, South African bond yields compensate investors with relatively high income. For a patient investor with an appropriate risk profile, bonds can still play an important diversification and income role, particularly if inflation eventually moderates.
Weak domestic growth argues against indiscriminately buying economically sensitive South African companies. However, the JSE contains many companies whose earnings come from offshore markets, commodities or multinational operations. A weaker rand can actually assist these businesses when foreign earnings are translated back into rand.
This suggests favouring quality and diversification rather than making a simple “JSE good/JSE bad” decision.
US economic activity remains strong and the Fed reports resilient spending, investment and productivity, while manufacturing conditions have also improved. Federal Reserve That supports corporate earnings. However, persistent inflation and higher interest rates mean investors should be careful about paying excessive prices for growth.
The ECB has also kept rates unchanged amid renewed energy-related inflation risks. European Central Bank This is another reason to expect periods of volatility rather than a straightforward global equity rally.
The contents of this article are sourced from third parties.There is no warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information or any aspect of this article. We shall not be responsible for and disclaim liability for any loss, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever, which may be suffered as a result of, or attributable to, the use or reliance upon the information provided in this newsletter
| company: | pfire |
| address: | 21 Alexander Drive Winston Park |
| tel: | +27 31 7644 042 |
| fax: | +27 86 529 6089 |
| website: | https://pfire.co.za |
| FSP Number: | 30256 |
To provide you, our client, with the opportunity to access and leverage innovative and collaborative professional and ethical advice and administrative services, (financial, personal and/or business) which will serve to facilitate, enhance and improve the opportunities for you to reach your personal or business goals.
In so doing we seek to ensure a long term mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship based upon trust, transparency and mutual benefit over generations.
Mike Lombard Financial Services cc t/a Pfire is a registered independent Financial Services Provider (FSP 30256) founded in 2007 by Mike Lombard. It is a fee based practice offering a range of bundled services to individuals and businesses.
An individual’s financial and business planning needs are interconnected and each part impacts in some way on to whole. This includes technical and regulatory information and expertise, emotional issues as well as logical matters that are considered as critical to outcomes.
Together with our clients, we solve problems and co-design solutions by asking three simple questions:-
- Where are you now
- Where do you want to be?
- How do you get there?
We hold ourselves to the highest ethical and professional standards through our accreditation with the Financial Planning Institute of South.
No one knows their personal and private circumstances better than our clients themselves. That is why we understand that planning in any form is very personal and emotional. Technical solutions count for little if problems are not identified and solved together. Co-designing solutions is at the core of planning offered by Pfire and requires an intimate partnership where trust, transparency and empathy are pivotal.
The beauty of collaboration is that it combines knowledge and wisdom offering better opportunities to embrace outcomes
At the heart of Pfire is a Fee Based Practice. Since 2007, before Fees became vogue, Pfire established a bundle of professional services designed to meet a wide range of service expectations at given monthly fees - a retainer if you will. From as little as R 29pm (plus Vat) clients can access professionally advice and services.
We offer pro bono services to those in need as well as raise funds for our selected charities on an ongoing basis.
We have FIVE FEE BASED Bundled Service options available to suit the needs of our personal and entrepreneurial clients. Our Fees are based upon monthly retainers in return for which the basket of services are available 24 hours a day.
As an independent practice, we have access to a range of financial products which can be purchased by our clients. These products are designed – at present – to pay a commission in return for our servicing, maintaining and managing the product on your behalf.
Our business services includes Entrepreneurial Development Programs, a full directory of business planning opportunities, Training, Mentorships and Collaborative Programs. These Fee based services are open to entrepreneurs starting out to business in growth or mature phases.
We have invested in aligning our organisation with our clients. Our web based “In Touch” platform enables our clients to activate their advisor 24 hours a day. Every record of every conversation, document shared or signed, emails sent or received is neatly filed recorded in your OWN personal space. At a click of your mouse we offer a transparent process that enables you to partner with us and together we accept joint responsibility for your outcomes.
Our In Touch secure and private portal also gives you access to a range of convenient and simple financial tools, the ability to draft your own simple Will, a FREE On-Line storage facility for all your private documents and so much more.
Being a registered active participant on this client centered platform will ensure that we are permanently connected enabling us to proactively serve you better, faster and accurately.
Whether you are looking for advice in Personal Finance, Risk and protection planning, Investments, Retirement, Health taxes or Estate Planning, we have options for you.
Financial and Business planning is not an event. It is a process that evolves over a period of time.
This means that relationships are paramount to a successful collaboration and taking long term views and measuring outcomes frequently and consistently is essential.
Doing business with Pfire requires a commitment based upon mutual respect and trust – things which are not taken for granted.
Mike began his career in 1981 with the Stanbic Group. Mike has various undergraduate and post graduate qualifications, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNNER ® and holds an International Action Learning Master of Business Administration from the Business School Netherlands. . He is a stakeholder in businesses including a technology company (Pfirestorm) and an entrepreneurs training organisation (PfireExplore). Between 1981 and 2007, Mike worked in retail, commercial and Private banking. In 1994, Mike attended and Overseas development program which included study at Manchester Business School and Templeton College (Oxford). Mike was a founding member of Pfire (2007), a licensed Financial Services Provider. The practice provides a full and comprehensive range of services and his specialities include Fiduciary Services advice, business consulting services and Business technology solutions although he also provides holistic advice on all areas of personal and business planning both locally and abroad. Mike is married with two children.
Cindy has worked as a Secretary / Personal Assistant for various Companies including Liberty Life and Discovery since 2002. Cindy oversees all the administrative and support functions within Pfire and is also the internal Compliance Officer. Cindy is the go to person for both the consultants as well as for many clients who seek her support and experience in dealing with a wide range of support and administrative services. Cindy is married with one daughter and enjoys baking in her limited spare time.
Daphne has been with Pfire since its inception and has experience in a wide range of administrative and support services. Currently Daphne attends to the organisations internal accounting and the management client accounts. In addition Daphne is responsible for engaging with various charitable institutions and organises various fun raising events.